Renew or Move? Why More Dubai Tenants Are Signing New Leases in 2026
As of October 2026, moving can cost less than renewing for some Dubai tenants, mainly in apartment communities where many new homes have been completed. New-lease rents for the same building and unit type were 15.3% below January levels, while renewal rents were down only about 1% (fäm Properties analysis of DLD data, reported by Khaleej Times, 23 Sep 2026). Renewal increases are still capped by Decree No. 43 of 2013, so compare both routes before you decide.
For most of the past three years, Dubai tenants who were happy with their home simply renewed. That changed in the summer of 2026. An analysis of Dubai Land Department (DLD) tenancy registrations by fäm Properties, reported by Khaleej Times on 23 September 2026, found that new leases outnumbered renewals by 633 contracts in July and 2,139 in August. According to fäm, it was the first time this had happened in any month since its dataset began in January 2023.
This article explains what is behind the shift, why it does not mean every rent in Dubai is falling, and how tenants and landlords can weigh renewing against moving. DLD had not published official contract counts for July to September when we checked in October 2026, so the monthly figures below come from third-party analysis of DLD data and from listing data, and each is attributed to its source.
What the latest rental data shows
Three findings stand out in the reporting up to October 2026.
New leases overtook renewals in July and August. According to the fäm Properties analysis reported by Khaleej Times, renewals had outnumbered new leases for 36 consecutive months before July. Total activity did not jump, however: the same fäm analysis shows new-lease contracts from January to August were 1% below the same period of 2025, and renewals were also 1% lower. The change is in the mix of contracts, not a surge in the number of people renting.
A price gap opened between new leases and renewals. The fäm Properties analysis also found that new-lease rents for the same building and unit type were 15.3% lower than in January, while renewal rents were down about 1%. According to fäm, the median rent on new apartment leases was AED 94.6 per sq ft in August, 8.3% below its October 2025 peak of AED 103.1.
There are more homes competing for each tenant. Gulf News reported on 18 October 2026 that the average number of apartments listed daily on Property Finder in September was 55.1% higher than a year earlier. Property Finder data in the same report showed renter enquiries up 15.4%, but each listing drew 23% fewer enquiries.
For context, renewals were still clearly ahead earlier in the year. DLD's first-quarter 2026 release, published on 19 April 2026, recorded 118,385 new rental contracts and 135,607 renewals.
Asking rents, new-lease rents and renewal rents are not the same
Headlines often mix three different measures. They move at different speeds, so it helps to know which one a figure refers to.
| Measure | What it tracks | Latest reported figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asking (listing) rents | The price landlords advertise | Combined median apartment asking rent across ten key communities: AED 135,000 in December 2025, AED 100,000 in June 2026, AED 105,000 in September 2026 (Property Finder) | Gulf News, 18 October 2026 |
| New-lease rents | Rents in newly registered contracts | Same building and unit type: 15.3% below January 2026 (fäm Properties, DLD data) | Khaleej Times, 23 September 2026 |
| Renewal rents | Rents agreed by tenants who stay | About 1% lower since January (fäm Properties analysis of DLD data) | Khaleej Times, 23 September 2026 |
According to the fäm analysis, renewing tenants have not seen the same fall as people signing new leases.
Asking and signed rents can also diverge sharply. In Downtown Dubai, Gulf News reported that asking rents fell 21.74% (Property Finder) while signed rents fell 11% (fäm Properties).
Not all Dubai rents are falling
The fall is concentrated in prime and waterfront apartment districts, where a lot of new supply has arrived. Gulf News reported these changes:
- Asking rents, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 (Property Finder): Downtown Dubai down 21.74% (from AED 230,000 to AED 180,000), Dubai Marina down 16.13%, Business Bay down 12.5% and Jumeirah Village Circle down 10%. Dubai Hills Estate apartments were flat.
- New-lease apartment rents, January to September 2026 against the same period of 2025 (fäm Properties): Palm Jumeirah down about 15%, Downtown down 11%, Marsa Dubai down 7.7% and Business Bay down 5.9%.
In several outer and more affordable areas, rents are still rising. Using fäm Properties data, Gulf News reported new-lease apartment rents up 11.3% in Me'Aisem First, 10.3% in Al Yelayiss 2 and 9.1% in Wadi Al Safa 2. fäm Properties data also showed villa rents rising in some areas, including Jabal Ali First (up 16.9%) and Dubai Hills Estate (up 11.1%), Gulf News reported.
Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties, linked the shift to supply: many homes bought off-plan in 2022 and 2023 are now complete and being leased out. So whether moving saves you money depends heavily on where you live and what type of home you rent.
Why moving can cost less than renewing
The answer lies in how renewals are regulated. Under Decree No. 43 of 2013, a landlord can raise the rent on renewal only if the current rent is more than 10% below the average for similar units. The maximum increase rises in bands, from 5% to 20%, and the average is set by the Rent Index approved by RERA. Since 2 January 2025, DLD's Smart Rental Index has also classified each residential building by its structure, finishes and maintenance, location and services.
When market rents were climbing, the cap kept many sitting tenants below the rents new tenants were paying. As new-lease rents fall, that gap narrows, and in some buildings it has reversed. The decree caps increases, but it does not require a landlord to cut the rent, so any reduction on renewal has to be negotiated. Al Msaddi told Khaleej Times that "tenants can now move to a comparable apartment for less than a renewal would cost."
Our RERA rent calculator guide explains how to check the index for your unit, and our tenancy renewal guide sets out the full renewal process and increase bands.
Renew or move? A checklist for tenants
- Know your notice dates. Under Article 14 of Law No. 26 of 2007, a party that does not want to renew, or wants to change the terms, must notify the other at least 90 days before the contract expires, unless both agree otherwise. Start comparing options well before that point.
- Run the official Rental Index. DLD's Rental Index service asks for your contract expiry date, property type, area, number of rooms and current annual rent. It shows the average rent for similar units and the permitted increase.
- Compare like with like. Compare similar homes in similar buildings, and treat asking rents as a starting point, not the price people actually sign at.
- Count the full cost of moving. A new tenancy usually means a new security deposit, an agency fee if you use a broker, Ejari registration for the new contract, a refundable DEWA security deposit and activation fee, removal costs and possibly a few days of overlapping rent. Your existing deposit normally comes back only after you hand the property back, subject to its condition, so plan for paying two deposits for a short time.
- Ask your landlord first. If similar homes nearby now let for less, show the evidence and ask for a lower rent, more cheques or better terms on maintenance. Property Finder's Cherif Sleiman told Gulf News: "This is a good time to compare options and negotiate."
- Put the decision in writing. If you are leaving, give written notice within your contract's notice period and keep proof of delivery. Under Article 6 of Law No. 26 of 2007, if you stay on after expiry without objection from the landlord, the contract renews for the same term or for one year, whichever is shorter.
If you do move, read our guide to signing a tenancy contract in Dubai and check that the listing is genuine using our rental scams guide.
What landlords should consider before the renewal
A good tenant leaving is rarely free. A vacant unit earns nothing while it is marketed, and a new let brings marketing, agency and turnaround costs. Before you send renewal terms:
- Price against today's market, not last year's. Check the Rental Index and recent signed rents for similar units in your building. In districts with heavy new supply, the old rent may now be above what a new tenant would pay.
- Stay within the rules. Any increase must sit within the Decree No. 43 of 2013 bands, and a change to the terms needs at least 90 days' notice before expiry under Article 14. Falling market rents are not one of the legal grounds for eviction. Recovering a property at expiry, for example to sell it or to live in it, requires 12 months' notice served through a notary public or by registered mail, as Khaleej Times explained on 20 September 2026.
- Compete on quality as well as price. Under the Smart Rental Index, a building's classification depends partly on finishes, maintenance and services. Speaking to Gulf News, Sleiman said a listing's quality, visibility and response speed now matter more than ever. Our guide to maintenance responsibilities in Dubai sets out who pays for what.
- Settle disputes properly. If you cannot agree, the Rental Disputes Center is the route, not withholding services or keys.
What could happen next
There is no official forecast for Dubai rents, and October 2026 contract data had not been published when this article was written. In the Gulf News report, Property Finder's Sleiman said September's rebound in median asking rents was an encouraging sign, but cautioned that one month does not make a trend. Barney Crompton of Eden Realty said he expected stability over the next three to six months, with more pressure possible in areas with heavy handovers. These are views from market participants, not guarantees.
For tenants still weighing longer-term plans, our rent vs buy guide compares the two over different time horizons.
Renting or letting through Seven Century
Seven Century is a RERA-licensed brokerage. If you are deciding whether to move, you can browse property for rent in Dubai and compare it with your renewal offer. Landlords can ask about property management in Dubai, including pricing a renewal, finding a new tenant and handling Ejari. For advice on a specific home, contact our team.
This article is general information based on reporting available in October 2026, not legal or financial advice. Rents vary by building and unit, and DLD can update the Rental Index and its rules. For a dispute or a complex case, speak to a qualified legal adviser.